飲み会の続き

飲み会で出た宿題の調査結果を書いてます。

延命治療が他国に比べて多いから社会保障費が高い?

日本は、延命治療が他国に比べて多いから社会保障費が高い、
といった、言説をたまに見かけます。
自分も若干信じていたので調べてみました。

 

もし延命治療が、他国に比べて多ければ、健康寿命と平均寿命の差が大きいはず。
健康寿命は「日常生活に制限のない期間の平均」)

 

60歳まで生きた人の「平均寿命ー健康寿命」の結果は、
1位 米国 6.7歳差
2位 オーストラリア 6.6歳差
3位 コスタリカ 6.3歳差
4位 カナダ 6.2歳差
といった具合でした。

 

ソースは、WHOさんのデータ。テドロスくん元気?

apps.who.int

 


日本は 5.9歳差の16位です。

というわけで、これからは延命治療が他国に比べて特別多い、といった印象ではないですね。

でも、僕のこの確認は、因果推論的には穴だらけです。
延命治療よりも、健康なのに医者に行く人が多いのが、社会保障費の増大を招いているかもしれませんし。

単純に一人当たりの社会保障費予算あたりを出す方が良さそうです。

全世界一覧

    Life expectancy at age 60 (years)
Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at age 60 (years)
 
Countries, territories and areas Year Both sexes Both sexes  
United States of America 2019 23.1 16.4 6.7
Australia 2019 25.6 19 6.6
Costa Rica 2019 25 18.7 6.3
Canada 2019 25.2 19 6.2
Kuwait 2019 24 17.8 6.2
New Zealand 2019 24.8 18.6 6.2
Norway 2019 24.7 18.5 6.2
Panama 2019 24.3 18.1 6.2
Spain 2019 25.4 19.2 6.2
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 2019 21.8 15.7 6.1
Italy 2019 25 18.9 6.1
Algeria 2019 22 16 6
Republic of Korea 2019 25.8 19.8 6
Slovenia 2019 23.8 17.8 6
Chile 2019 24.3 18.4 5.9
Japan 2019 26.3 20.4 5.9
Colombia 2019 24 18.1 5.9
Cyprus 2019 24.9 19 5.9
Germany 2019 24.4 18.5 5.9
Luxembourg 2019 24.4 18.5 5.9
Peru 2019 24.4 18.5 5.9
Saudi Arabia 2019 19.9 14 5.9
Switzerland 2019 25.4 19.5 5.9
Austria 2019 24.1 18.3 5.8
Belgium 2019 24 18.2 5.8
Czechia 2019 22.1 16.3 5.8
Libya 2019 21.3 15.5 5.8
Mauritius 2019 20.3 14.5 5.8
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 2019 24.1 18.3 5.8
El Salvador 2019 22.1 16.4 5.7
Netherlands (Kingdom of the) 2019 24.1 18.4 5.7
Finland 2019 24.2 18.5 5.7
Mexico 2019 21.8 16.1 5.7
Portugal 2019 24.3 18.6 5.7
Croatia 2019 21.8 16.2 5.6
France 2019 25.3 19.7 5.6
Iceland 2019 24.6 19 5.6
India 2019 18.8 13.2 5.6
Jordan 2019 21.8 16.2 5.6
Malta 2019 24.5 18.9 5.6
Sweden 2019 24.5 18.9 5.6
Thailand 2019 23.6 18 5.6
Ecuador 2019 23.2 17.6 5.6
Ireland 2019 24.2 18.6 5.6
Israel 2019 24.9 19.3 5.6
Brazil 2019 21.9 16.4 5.5
Guatemala 2019 20.5 15 5.5
Lebanon 2019 20.5 15 5.5
Singapore 2019 25.5 20 5.5
Sri Lanka 2019 20.8 15.3 5.5
Trinidad and Tobago 2019 22.7 17.2 5.5
Tunisia 2019 21.5 16 5.5
Denmark 2019 23.6 18.2 5.4
Greece 2019 23.8 18.4 5.4
Seychelles 2019 19.5 14.1 5.4
Bangladesh 2019 20.9 15.5 5.4
Turkiye 2019 22 16.6 5.4
United Arab Emirates 2019 19.9 14.5 5.4
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 2019 21.7 16.3 5.4
Cuba 2019 21.6 16.3 5.3
Maldives 2019 22.1 16.8 5.3
Paraguay 2019 21.8 16.5 5.3
Poland 2019 22.1 16.8 5.3
Qatar 2019 19.5 14.2 5.3
China 2019 21.1 15.9 5.2
South Africa 2019 19.1 13.9 5.2
Bahrain 2019 19 13.8 5.2
Estonia 2019 22.5 17.3 5.2
Slovakia 2019 21.8 16.6 5.2
South Sudan 2019 17.8 12.7 5.1
Saint Lucia 2019 20.9 15.8 5.1
Uruguay 2019 21.7 16.6 5.1
Senegal 2019 18.1 13.1 5
Sudan 2019 18.6 13.6 5
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2019 20.2 15.2 5
Iraq 2019 19.2 14.2 5
Lithuania 2019 20.9 15.9 5
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2019 20.9 15.9 5
Jamaica 2019 21.3 16.4 4.9
Latvia 2019 20.5 15.6 4.9
Malaysia 2019 19.5 14.6 4.9
Nicaragua 2019 20 15.1 4.9
Bhutan 2019 19.4 14.5 4.9
Hungary 2019 20.2 15.3 4.9
Russian Federation 2019 19.9 15 4.9
Antigua and Barbuda 2019 20.6 15.8 4.8
Argentina 2019 21.1 16.3 4.8
Belize 2019 21.5 16.7 4.8
Viet Nam 2019 19.6 14.8 4.8
Cabo Verde 2019 19.7 14.9 4.8
Liberia 2019 17.7 12.9 4.8
Syrian Arab Republic 2019 18.7 13.9 4.8
United Republic of Tanzania 2019 18.2 13.4 4.8
Equatorial Guinea 2019 17.6 12.9 4.7
Pakistan 2019 17.3 12.6 4.7
Serbia 2019 19.6 14.9 4.7
Armenia 2019 20.4 15.7 4.7
Brunei Darussalam 2019 19.2 14.5 4.7
Kazakhstan 2019 19.5 14.8 4.7
Mali 2019 17.5 12.8 4.7
Mauritania 2019 19 14.3 4.7
Nepal 2019 18 13.3 4.7
Nigeria 2019 18.2 13.5 4.7
Timor-Leste 2019 17.9 13.2 4.7
Bahamas 2019 20.8 16.2 4.6
Bulgaria 2019 19.8 15.2 4.6
Dominican Republic 2019 20.6 16 4.6
Oman 2019 17.8 13.2 4.6
Romania 2019 20.3 15.7 4.6
Belarus 2019 19.7 15.1 4.6
Morocco 2019 18.7 14.1 4.6
Sao Tome and Principe 2019 17.7 13.1 4.6
Barbados 2019 20.9 16.3 4.6
Kenya 2019 17.6 13.1 4.5
Myanmar 2019 18.1 13.6 4.5
Cambodia 2019 17.7 13.2 4.5
Honduras 2019 18.3 13.8 4.5
Namibia 2019 17.2 12.7 4.5
Tonga 2019 19 14.5 4.5
Ukraine 2019 19.5 15 4.5
Yemen 2019 17.8 13.3 4.5
Ethiopia 2019 18.4 13.9 4.5
Indonesia 2019 17.9 13.4 4.5
Montenegro 2019 19.4 14.9 4.5
Samoa 2019 17.9 13.4 4.5
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 2019 18.6 14.2 4.4
Cote d'Ivoire 2019 17.1 12.7 4.4
Comoros 2019 18.1 13.7 4.4
Angola 2019 17 12.6 4.4
Egypt 2019 17.8 13.4 4.4
Georgia 2019 18.8 14.4 4.4
Philippines 2019 17.8 13.4 4.4
Republic of Moldova 2019 19 14.6 4.4
Rwanda 2019 18 13.6 4.4
Sierra Leone 2019 17 12.6 4.4
Suriname 2019 18.5 14.1 4.4
Afghanistan 2019 15.2 10.8 4.4
Albania 2019 21 16.6 4.4
Benin 2019 17.4 13 4.4
Botswana 2019 16.2 11.8 4.4
Fiji 2019 16.2 11.8 4.4
Gabon 2019 17.2 12.8 4.4
Grenada 2019 18.7 14.3 4.4
Malawi 2019 17.2 12.8 4.4
Cameroon 2019 17.1 12.8 4.3
Kyrgyzstan 2019 20 15.7 4.3
Lao People's Democratic Republic 2019 17.6 13.3 4.3
North Macedonia 2019 18.3 14 4.3
Gambia 2019 16.9 12.6 4.3
Ghana 2019 17.2 12.9 4.3
Uganda 2019 17.7 13.4 4.3
Burkina Faso 2019 16.8 12.6 4.2
Democratic People's Republic of Korea 2019 19.1 14.9 4.2
Djibouti 2019 17.8 13.6 4.2
Madagascar 2019 16.8 12.6 4.2
Mozambique 2019 15.8 11.6 4.2
Chad 2019 16.5 12.3 4.2
Congo 2019 16.4 12.2 4.2
Guinea 2019 16.5 12.3 4.2
Niger 2019 17.2 13 4.2
Papua New Guinea 2019 16.5 12.3 4.2
Togo 2019 17 12.8 4.2
Democratic Republic of the Congo 2019 16.6 12.5 4.1
Guyana 2019 16.6 12.5 4.1
Uzbekistan 2019 18.6 14.5 4.1
Eritrea 2019 15.5 11.4 4.1
Eswatini 2019 15.1 11 4.1
Guinea-Bissau 2019 15.5 11.4 4.1
Zimbabwe 2019 15.6 11.5 4.1
Haiti 2019 16.8 12.8 4
Turkmenistan 2019 18.7 14.7 4
Zambia 2019 16.5 12.6 3.9
Burundi 2019 16.5 12.7 3.8
Mongolia 2019 16.4 12.6 3.8
Vanuatu 2019 15.7 11.9 3.8
Azerbaijan 2019 17.1 13.4 3.7
Solomon Islands 2019 15.5 11.8 3.7
Lesotho 2019 13.4 9.8 3.6
Micronesia (Federated States of) 2019 14.7 11.1 3.6
Tajikistan 2019 16.1 12.7 3.4
Kiribati 2019 13.7 10.3 3.4
Somalia 2019 14.5 11.2 3.3
Central African Republic 2019 13.2 10 3.2